
A month before the NATO summit in The Hague, the alliance's top military official, Admiral Giuseppe Dragone, has stated that there are no concrete signs that the United States plans to withdraw forces currently engaged in Europe. However, he warned that the alliance must prepare for the possibility of Washington redirecting its strategic attention to the Indo-Pacific region.
"A key issue would be to plan that in advance."Dragone pointed out during his visit to Washington, stressing the need for NATO to be able to "reorient and rebalance." effectively in the face of any change in the U.S. military posture.
Over the past few months, the U.S. Department of Defense has focused its strategic efforts on countering China's growing influence, relegating the threat posed by Russia, even after more than three years since the start of the invasion of Ukraine.
A report leaked in March, prepared by the Heritage Foundation and endorsed by senior Pentagon officials, suggests that the United States should reposition some of its forces committed to the defense of Europe to strengthen its presence in Asia and deter a possible invasion of Taiwan. This approach would force European countries to compensate for the absence of U.S. troops in key areas such as air defense, electronic warfare, strategic lift and unmanned systems.
Although Dragone stated that he has not received official confirmation that the Pentagon is implementing these plans, he acknowledged that Europe will have to prepare to assume greater military responsibilities if such a scenario materializes.
Since the start of the war in Ukraine, 22 of the 32 NATO members have already reached the target of spending at least 2% of their GDP on defense. However, U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly stated that this level of spending is insufficient, proposing to raise it to 5%.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte is evaluating a proposal to be presented at the upcoming June summit, which calls for raising defense spending to 3.5% of GDP, with an additional 1.5% earmarked for other security initiatives. Dragone confirmed that this proposal is under discussion, although he did not specify when it might be implemented or in which specific areas the additional resources would be invested.
"The final state will be 3.5 plus 1.5, whatever they decide, but how they will reach it should be a national responsibility."said Dragone, calling for flexibility and realism on the part of the alliance.
Italy, Admiral Dragone's home country, has not yet reached the 2% threshold for defense spending, registering only 1.49% of GDP in 2024. However, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni assured in April that Italy will meet the commitments later this year.
Dragone also warned of Russia's continued military buildup, which has redirected its economy to sustain huge losses in equipment and personnel throughout the war in Ukraine.
According to his estimates, Russian forces continue to suffer between 1,000 and 1,200 casualties per day on the front lines, but Moscow maintains its goal of restoring pre-invasion military capability in 2022. While in a best-case scenario Russia could reach that level in three years, Dragone considers a timeframe of five to seven years more realistic.
The Hague summit will be crucial in defining the future of European defense strategy, in an increasingly uncertain geopolitical context and with a constantly shifting global balance of power.






